Oil Spiked, Equities Slid as Haven Demand Picked Up

STATE OF THE MARKETS

Oil spiked, equities slid as haven demand picked up. US stocks sold off sharply on Thursday as another powerful surge in crude prices and rising Treasury yields stoked fears of an energy‑driven inflation shock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled about 1.6%, losing roughly 785 points to close near 47,955, while the S&P 500 fell around 0.6% and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq slipped about 0.3%. The Russell 2000 underperformed with a drop of about 1.9%, reflecting renewed pressure on higher‑beta and domestically focused names as funding and growth concerns resurfaced. 

The Dollar Index stayed firm as safe‑haven flows continued and US 10‑year yields pushed above the 4.1% mark, underscoring worries that higher energy costs could keep inflation sticky. A stronger greenback added to the headwinds for risk assets and helped tighten overall financial conditions, reinforcing the unwind of the earlier “dollar dipped while equities ripped higher” regime.
 
In the commodity markets, crude oil ripped higher again, with US WTI futures surging roughly 8.5% to settle just above 81 per barrel, their highest level since mid‑2024 and the biggest one‑day percentage gain since 2020. Brent crude climbed through the 85 handle as traders priced in mounting disruption risk from the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and possible constraints around key shipping lanes. Gold and silver advanced as investors sought protection, with spot gold up close to 1% around 5,180–5,190 per ounce and silver gaining a bit more than 2% toward the mid‑80s, even as both metals faced offsetting pressure from the stronger dollar and higher real yields. Industrial metals were more mixed to softer, staying broadly range‑bound as traders balanced war‑driven commodity fears against a weaker global‑growth outlook.
 
In the FX space, the renewed risk‑off tone and rising US yields favored defensive currencies. The dollar outperformed high‑beta peers as investors rotated out of pro‑cyclical FX and back into havens, reversing the earlier pattern where the Dollar Index eased while risk assets rallied. The Loonie struggled to fully capitalize on the oil spike as broader risk aversion and a stronger USD kept USD/CAD supported, while the Aussie and other high‑beta currencies stayed under pressure alongside global equities. 

Safe‑haven demand for the Swiss franc and, to a lesser extent, the yen remained underpinned, while Sterling and the Euro traded heavy, constrained by domestic growth concerns and the firmer dollar backdrop. Overall, the medium‑term tone for the greenback remained supported by US yield differentials and its defensive appeal as long as energy‑driven inflation and geopolitical risks remain front‑of‑mind.


G8 CURRENCIES SENTIMENTS

ST AUD USD NZD GBP CAD CHF EUR JPY ST
MT AUD CAD USD CHF NZD GBP JPY EUR MT
LT AUD CHF CAD USD NZD GBP EUR JPY LT
** ST refers to Short-Term daily turnover, MT is Medium Term weekly 
and LT refers to Long-Term monthly turnover.

WALL ST. TOP FIVE INFLOWS

TICKER LAST PRICE

%CHANGE

VOLUME $ INFLOWS
NKE 58.02 – 1.06 22.04M + 191.89M
HOLX 75.75 + 0.11 6.45M + 134.99M
BRK.B 500.40 + 2.65 8.96M + 85.12M
AVGO 332.77 + 4.80 57.08M + 82.06M
BKNG 4613.28 + 8.46 812.86M + 69.02M
** tickers with total inflows but block orders outflows are not included

WALL ST. TOP FIVE OUTFLOW

TICKER LAST PRICE

% CHANGE

VOLUME $ OUTFLOW
MSFT 410.68 + 1.38 39.00M – 431.00M
NVDA 183.34 + 0.16 198.78M – 320.99M
GOOGL 300.88 – 0.74 35.75M – 308.31M
TSM 353.86 – 1.00 16.25M – 304.77M
MU 397.05 – 0.93 29.96M – 257.00M
** tickers with total outflows but block orders inflows are not included



 

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